OUTLOOK FOR JULY, 2019
This article will consist of only 2 parts:
- GBP crash and its affects on various signals;
- Short-analysis of most lunatic... sorry, popular, signals on MQL5 platform, as well as those that our readers asked to be analyzed;
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Market moves on July were purely driven by fundamentals, caused by different random stuff happening all around the world. Brits got a new troll PM, FED continued to show "political independance" and cut rates when there is literally 0 structural unemployment in US, while Trump and his gang trolled China once again with some healthy dose of tarrifs. Everything combined, GBPUSD got crushed, falling more than 700 pips in last 5 weeks and 1200 pips in last 3 months. Normally, we don't observe such lob-sided moves for historically stable currencies, especially, if a central bank behind the currency crashing is very close to its floor when it comes to reducing interest rates any further. These are unique times and various signals' ability to deal with these are completely dependant on their money management and risk tolerance.
Some of the previously highlighted low-quality signals experienced significant problems:
No worries, there were others as well, however, those have been already deleted, thus, we cannot show a "snapshot" of how their story ended.
The same move on GBP-related currency pairs affected other, more stable, trading signals as well, causing problems across the board.
Shikari - when a signal with 5 year and 15k trades old successful trading history has its very first major breakdown, You know that things are getting very very strange. The signal provider decided to cut his loss, however, one can question whether the last positions of EURGBP basket were reasonably sized.
We had identified an alternative of Shikari, didn't we? Outlook for June, 2019 was the article, right? Unfortunately, Banker signal and its performance was sub-par as well, thus, not much diversification with this signal.
AnnaFlat2 - we were questioning the money management before, however, it seemed that this Ukrainian girl had made her risk-stability improvements in the recent months. Unfortunately, it turned out to be a false premise, and her DD shot up massively in the month of June. This result was caused by a downside move on EURUSD, not GBPUSD, though, who cares if You get 60+% DD?
Invest small Capital with monthly Growth - wait, did we say that only currencies are going crazy? - no no no, the same is happening with equities. In the result, this guy, who we previously identified as one of the best, is having hard times as well:
Did we perform much better than those upper signals? - nop, not really.
Similarly to the previous stories, our own Millionaire Signal has struggled quite a bit in the recent weeks. The most problems have been caused by GBPUSD, in which we have well-stretched basket of long positions. Despite the pair touching its historical lows, somehow, the downside pressure remains, causing 20% DD at the moment. In this 1200 pip beatdown, we have been only buying the pair, thus, 20% DD might not seem that much. Unfortunately, this pause of usual profit-taking on GBPUSD pair has affected out total profitability as well, leading to very tiny profits for the month of July. Trading remains highly inefficient for now - unless something changes in the upcoming month, we will have to re-assess the performance of every single Ea behind our signal, and will have to cut the weakest links. Will see what happens, but currently the picture is very blurry and negative on our end.
Some of You might start to wonder why the bias is so negative around the signals we had previously highlighted as positive examples for others. The answer is very short - because these signals are still around and their struggle against the controversial market conditions has not been errupted by margin-calls. These are the stories we can still follow to and battles we can still observe and judge. For each of these previously mentioned signals, there are literally THOUSaNDS of others that have been blown up within the same timespan of activity (in Shikari's case - tens of '000). Yes, each of these is going through some struggles, but hey - atleast these can still be found and haven't been deleted & replaced by their owners with new garbage.
Talking about garbage - damn, the current list of most-subscribed MQL5 signals is horrendously bad. With such low quality of debatable material, FX SUMO doesn't see any need for creating tables or drawings - who cares, really? 12 months have passed, yet, the same manipulative nonsense run by the same morons is back at tops, really, for fk sake?! For crying out loud, how dumb can these subscribers be?!? This TOP makes us to wonder whether we should continue to analyze most-subscribed signals as a group -> this one is just as random as it gets, no quality whatsoever, it's not even fun anymore.
- FOREXSTaY SIGHT SET 01/ FOREXSTay SIGHT SET 02 - subs of these are faking idiots, sorry, but no other way, complete retards. Don't You remember Twilight Saga? - no, not the movie, but the huge signal that blew up a year ago. Twilighttrade, Safety Dragon and their “heirs”, read more here. Who do You think is behind these 2 signals, hmm geniuses? - think think think.
Questions? - shouldn't be any, yet 700 idiots behind these 2 signals with their funds.
- Bushmills - manipulative garbage with fake history, rip subs very soon. 1 mil behind this one? - yikees.
- Profitable signal - all trades made just after midnight with idiotically high lots and not closing out any losers - yup, this one will end well. Stay away from this nonsense.
- Currency trading - why is this one still around? have talked about this for many months, yet, here it still stands. Manipulation at its finest.
- Maximus - super risky, huge deposit load/DD ratio, no SLs - this one has been lucky and nothing more. Small amount of trades, will blow up anytime soon.
- Blackwave Pacific - by far the best of surrounding sea of shits, currently one of the best signals out there. Has gone through these crazy times with stable drawdown and healthy profits, very well done.
- FX STAR PRO - likewise to Maximus, super risky, was close to blowing up in July, yet, remains here for now. With these risks behind positions, this luck will very soon be depleted to the ground.
- Melodrama - history in 2018 is as unreliable as it gets, manipulative shit. 2019 has brought more trusthworthy gains and unhealthy drawdown/deposit load levels, which will lead to MC in the near future. Nothing positive to say about this one. Theoretically, trading efficiency is not the worst, however, lack of MM is will lead to predictable outcome.
- EA HTMiX PROM5 - who does comes up with these names, hmm? Trading-wise, no SLs used, however, low deposit load and reasonable drawdown/deposit load relationship -> with exception of Blackwave, we could bet that this one will survive the longest of the remaining 9 signals. Is the trading efficient? - nop, not with those constant floating losses. With this signal, the downside is clearly visible, however, gains could be accumulated over time. Is this a good investment choice? - in absolute terms, no; in relative terms (versus other 8 shits), this is an attractive choice.
2 additional signals that our readers asked to be analyzed:
- Master X2 - garbage, huge deposit in time of critical DD, disqualified from the very beginning;
- Classic Strategy - this one, actually, seems to be a very reasonable choice. Sensible monthly growth, high amount of trades that are not over-levereged, nice nice. Likewise to other signals, its trading has been rather inefficient in the previous months, however, position sizing is very adequate, thus, signal is somewhat less exposed to immediate shocks in price action. We strongly advise to add this one to Your watchlist as there is much to like about this signal.:)
Let's sum up - we have huge number of garbage signals that could be gone anyday, we have quite many - historically sensible - signals that are trying to deal with these chaotic trading conditions, and we have one or two stable signals that have shown great results in times of general turmoil. Honestly, our best advice for any potential subscriber (investor) - check the signals that survive this nonsense, and go with those. Obvioulsly, after month or two there will be visually more appealing investment choices, but think then - would those actually survive the turmoil that is shaking both currencies and equities right now? - These times are raugh, there is a reason why so many signals blow up and don't live through this trading environment.
We feel that it is extremely important that our readers give their feedback for our material. We encourage You to analyze and criticize our findings, as well as actively engage in these discussions. Share FX SUMO analytical/educational articles and raise the level of critical-thinking for Yourself, as well as the overall community. More than ever we have to look-past all the fog to see the real picture; the list of analyzed signals is still of very low quality -> this has to change ASAP, otherwise, new stories of lost money will be unfolded very very soon.
Best of luck,