OUTLOOK FOR APRIL, 2019
April has passed, sun is shining brighter and brighter day-by-day, our mood is as joyful as it gets. Trading-wise, it has been a rather quiet month - these are the ones we like the most. No drama, no shenanigans, just calmly flowing down the river. This will not be the lengthiest article as there is not super-much to discuss - let's keep it short and up-to-the-point this time.:)
This article will consist of 2 parts:
- As always, the article will start by general analysis of 25 most-subscribed MQL5 trading signals, as well as 2 of our own and 5 of those that our readers asked to be analyzed.
- Afterwards, we will take closer look at 14 signals and will try to rank them accordingly.
We encourage our followers and neutral observers to join our Telegram group, where trading signals are being evaluated and analyzed on daily basis: https://t.me/joinchat/Hpt7gUyosD5JZw-BFsVN3g
Same as before, FX Sumo will continue to present "The Table" in straight-forward colored manner. Yes, specific parts still need to be zoomed in, however, the overall feeling is that this is much easier to be read than the previous versions. Table is divided into two parts - binary "bullshit" check based on 5 segments and deeper analysis of those signals that get through first check.
A few remarks before we dive into specific signals and their performances:
- why we have 26 most-subbed signals analyzed instead of 25? - for some reason, it was impossible to find HAMSTER TURBO in the list of highest-subscribed signals. And no, it didn't have massive DD when this article was made, subscription was allowed. Could it be that 2 massively bad months are enough to trigger some condition in MQL5 that kicks the signal out from general searching option? - Dunno, but this is weird, have never encountered such a situation.
- some of our readers are struggling to understand the reasoning behind "bullshit check". Basically, going through these 5 segments allows us to determine whether particular signal and its performance is "real" and repeatable over and over again. Don't get us wrong, the fact that a signal gets through this check doesn't automatically make it a good investment opportunity (will see quite many such cases going forward), yet, the overall picture with these is "less-cloudy". Bad performance is still miles-ahead manipulative performance, that's the point we are trying to make here.
Painting called "The Mirage in The Desert", wink wink.:)
Out of 33 initial trading signals, 14 got through our "mirage check" and were analyzed in more detail. Each of these signals were evaluated based on 4 criteria and valuations were given from "Horrible" to "Wonderful". In order to assure maximum objectivity, these valuations were transferred in points from 1 (lowest, red) to 5 (highest, blue) -> based on the sum of points, the signals got ranked. Before ranking these signals, we must say - out of all 4 criteria, first 3 are purely mathematical, thus, these are as objective as it gets. Fourth one, "communication with subscribers", is a rather subjective one - we took into consideration style, quality and frequency of communication with subscribers. This is what we got:
MWsclp - besides reasonable money management and free service, there is simply nothing else there. Trading remains wildly inefficient, there is no communication from the author and size of the account is very low. Despite signal being free-of-charge, we feel that it has reached a point, when it can't be even included in larger portfolio for diversification purposes - that's how bad its performance has been.
FX STAR PRO - horrible money management, super-small account size -> the combination that normally leads to blown-accounts, yet, somehow this one has managed to survive for quite a time. Honestly, it feels more like luck than anything else, especially, with these frequent spikes in drawdown - each of those could have potentially burned the signal to the ground. The signal has all-around bad performance, which is somewhat improved by the author that tends to open his mouth time-after-time - surprisingly, the presented information has above-average quality. Well, whatever... unless trading risks are reduced 5-7x, there is a very high chance that this signal won't last much longer.
HAMSTER TURBO - one picture tells more than 1000 words, that's what they say, right?
Money management and trading efficiency is absolutely non-existent, thus, it is surprise that TURBO is even this high. What can we say here? - did warn people months before this happened (November outlook / Outlook for January, 2019) so now we just sit quiet. For those interested, the signal should earn 14925.37% alone in this year to make it positive -> once again confirming that as an investor Your number one priority should be securing Your funds, as it takes a hell-lot-of work to regain any losses (mathematical reasons).
Investicum - do You remember that "Mahican picture" from the last update (March Madness) ? - well, now You know why we posted it there. These problems were predicted miles ahead, so again, we sit quiet. We question the author's (and Hamster's EA) capability to bounce back, but will see how it goes. The all-around score for this signal has fallen dramatically, however, the author shows signs of life, communicating with the subscribers rather frequently.
HAMSTER INFINITY - less dramatic version of HAMSTER TURBO, that's it. Because of more reasonable money management, its score is a point higher than the other signal, however, the overall conclusions remain the same. The author claimed that some changes were made in the underlying strategy, however, we remain very skeptical - too much nonsense and lack of understanding has been shown throughout the last 6 months, the chance of sudden improvements is very limited.
FX SUMO STeady - copy-paste from previous update, nothing new to be said here:
Trading remains inefficient and there are occasional DD spikes that get over our heads. We are still considering the ways of reducing risks, however, it remains extremely hard task as we are already trading with minimum allowed position sizes. Generally speaking, this account is forward-testing potential EAs and their updated settings before those are included in Millionaire Signal, therefore, results will always be somewhat below average.
Trading to Win - all-around average signal with no clear strengths. SLs are being used, however, spikes in DD are too occasional, plus, DD absolute values are too high. Unless risks are reduced 2-3x, from MM perspective this will remain "an average" signal at best. Trading efficiency is reasonable, yet, nothing spectacular - monthly growth/DD ratio remains consistently between 1.0 and 1.5. One could wish for larger account size - 1.5k won't gonna cut it even in medium-run. Time will tell how this one will perform, there is some potential, however, for now we cannot say anything more than - meh...
Lemar Unusual - honestly, we are waiting for this one to crash and soon. Manual system with those gains is not sustainable. Although this is one of the most efficient trading signals out there, position sizing should be decreased ~10x to have any type of sustainability in medium-term. Historical DD does not display the full risks behind the signal, especially, considering historical deposit load figures and the fact that some of these positions remain open for weeks & without SL till the positive-end result. Interestingly, the author has reduced account size to the minimum, while monthly gains have continued to climb - from our perspective, the author is fully-aware of the underlying risks, yet is milking subs' money while he can. On the other hand, as long as these returns are there and the signal is not burned to the ground, who can blame anyone for going on to this ride?
From this point on, all the following signals could be considered as investment opportunities - each has its strengths and weaknesses, but atleast there is something to debate about.
Blackwave Pacific - not much has changed since the previous update. Still huge trading balance that ensures some safety; still rather good money management with somewhat limited DD levels; still below average trading efficiency that, most probably, will not be improved in the future. The signal is among the safest ones out there, however, there are still one or two signals that fill the role even better.
SIEA - this one was proposed by our readers, and it is a good one. Signal's description is well-structured, any updates are well-put, no-nonsense, love it. On top of above average communication, this one has rather stable money management - we were debating whether to give it 3 or 4 points with regards to this, decided to give 3, just because of very-long lasting trades (15+days avg holding time). Likewise to Blackwave, one could hope for more efficient trading, due to floating losses monthly growth/DD ratios are much below 1 (actually, that is really bad).
Main EA - there are 2 things that we don't like with this one -> tiny account size and choice of traded pairs. Tiny account size decreases this signal's overall result considerably -> having 800$ account when You are being followed by the total capital of 150k$ is just straight up dumb. With regards to MM, choice of individual position sizing is good (reasonable drawdown/deposit load ratio), however, due to high amount of traded pairs, total drawdown can spike at moments (due to correlated pairs and floating losses across these pairs). We would strongly advise to either throw some pairs off, or decrease trading sizes further (atleast twice, maybe more, hard to tell with the available data).
Besides these 2 aspects, everything else is premium-quality -> communication, outstanding; trading efficiency, very very solid. Depositing in the account some of the money generated from subscription fees would automatically lift this one up to the very top of the signals. It remains a question what should be done with MM, however, this one has a ton of potential.
Shikari - the most safest and most reliable signal out there, it's not even close. Trading efficiency remains sub-par, monthly growth/DD ratios fluctuate around 1, that's as average as it gets. The author is easy-to-reach and frequently answers questions from potential subs, however, sometimes the presented information is just garbage-quality. This one is definitely the case when we are more positive towards the signal than towards the individual behind the product. All in all, this is the signal for those with lowest-risk appetite and it will require a ton of capital to have returns that would match costs of subscribing.
Masa - all-around strong signal. Trading efficiency has been absolutely gorgeous; similarly to Main EA, this one trades a lot of currency pairs, however, here position size per pair is lower, thus, MM is much more stable. Another direct comparison with Main EA would be account's size -> here it is bigger, thus, automatically the grade is higher. Don't get us wrong, it is still not perfect, but atleast we are getting somewhere. The communication is consistent and in... French? - hard to evaluate the quality of this. On the negative side, those first 30 trades look dodgy AF and February's result is an obvious outlier; hard to tell whether it was deliberately manipulated or the author later just decided to decrease the risks. Well, even without February's results, signal's performance remains very-high quality, therefore, it is rated accordingly.
Millionaire Signal - in the previous update we finally put our signal at the very top, and April's performance didn't let down the expectations -> we had a very solid trading month, with stable money management and high efficiency (growth/DD above 2). Despite the last 7 weeks of exceptional trading efficiency, we still rate it as "average"; we remain dubious on whether such efficient trading can be sustained for a lengthier stretches of time. As much as we would like to hype the signal up, we remain optimistically cautious towards future performance.
We feel that it is extremely important that our readers give their feedback for our material. We encourage You to analyze and criticize our findings, as well as actively engage in these discussions. Share FX SUMO analytical/educational articles and raise the level of critical-thinking for Yourself, as well as the overall community. More than ever we have to look-past all the fog to see the real picture; the list of analyzed signals is still of very low quality -> this has to change ASAP, otherwise, new stories of lost money will be unfolded very very soon.
Best of luck,